Migration Adds to Housing Demand, But Wales’ Housing Crisis Runs Deeper
Migration is contributing to housing demand in Wales, but new analysis suggests the country’s housing crisis cannot be explained by population growth alone.
A new Senedd Research briefing highlights decades of underbuilding, affordability pressures, household growth and wider economic conditions as major factors behind the ongoing Welsh housing crisis.
According to the 2021 Census, 28.7% of people living in Wales were born elsewhere, including 6.8% outside the UK and 21.9% in other UK nations.
Housing patterns differ considerably between these groups. Around 35.9% of residents born outside the UK lived in private rented housing, compared with 12% of Welsh-born residents. Among people who had lived in the UK for less than two years, this increased to 68.7%.
However, migration represents only one part of a much more complex picture.
Household growth puts pressure on housing supply
Between 2012 and 2024, the number of households in Wales increased by 6%, outpacing population growth. Smaller household sizes, an ageing population and migration have all contributed to growing demand for homes.
Recent population growth in Wales has been largely supported by migration as birth rates have declined. Without migration, Wales’s population is estimated to have fallen by 44,900 between 2011 and 2025.
Yet international migration has recently slowed. By June 2025, net international migration had fallen to its lowest level since 2010, while the Welsh population decreased by 0.1%.
Research suggests migration can increase housing pressure where supply fails to keep pace, but its long-term influence on UK house prices is relatively modest compared with factors including income, mortgage availability, interest rates and housing supply.
Wales faces a structural shortage of homes
One of the biggest challenges remains supply. Decades of insufficient housebuilding have contributed to a housing shortage in Wales, while pressures including declining social housing availability, private rental costs and affordability continue to affect households.
The Welsh Government has greater control over supply-side measures, including planning policy, social housing investment, land assembly and private rented sector regulation. Major demand factors such as interest rates, mortgage markets, welfare and immigration policy largely sit at UK Government level.
The findings underline that tackling the housing crisis in Wales is unlikely to come from a single policy solution. Increasing housing supply, improving affordability and responding to changing household needs will all play a role in determining the future of the Welsh housing market.
